In editorial in the influential Global Times, has suggested that China will “take action” if India elects to militarily involve itself in the ongoing political crisis in The Maldives. According to editorial author Ai Jun,
“Facing the tense situation in Malé, India should exercise restraint. The Maldives is trapped in turmoil. This is the country’s internal affairs and China firmly opposes outside interference. More than that, China should take necessary measures to stop India if New Delhi moves to intervene militarily.
China is not fighting the concept of India’s sphere of influence. Some Indians are pondering a military intervention. However, it does not accord with basic norms governing international relations, which includes respecting other countries’ sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity and the principle of noninterference in the internal affairs of other states. If the situation in the Maldives deteriorates, solutions should be made using international mechanisms. Unilateral military interference has already jeopardized the current global order.
…The Maldives’ dependence on India for security since then has made New Delhi grow arrogant and bring Malé into its sphere of influence. But Malé is tired of New Delhi, which at all times tries to dominate Maldives’ politics. Since Maldivian President Abdulla Yameen assumed office in 2013, the nation has proactively interacted with the US, China, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, gradually heading toward more independent and balanced diplomacy.
This apparently irritated India. Perhaps New Delhi has been seeking an opportunity to showcase its military again in its “backyard.”
Without UN empowerment, there would be no righteous cause for any armed force to intervene. China will not interfere in the internal affairs of the Maldives, but that does not mean that Beijing will sit idly by as New Delhi breaks the principle. If India one-sidedly sends troops to the Maldives, China will take action to stop New Delhi. India should not underestimate China’s opposition to unilateral military intervention”.
While these statements do not represent official Chinese policy, because of the Global Times’ links with the ruling Communist Party of China, Ai Jun’s article does indicate China’s increased frustrations with the lurking possibility of India once again intervening in the sovereign affairs of The Maldives.
“The 21st-century geopolitics of the Multipolar World Order are such that India is doing the US’ bidding in “containing China” in this part of the world, helped along as it is by the game-changing 2016 LEMOA military-strategic partnership that New Delhi unprecedentedly signed with Washington in allowing each party to use one another’s military facilities on a case-by-case basis.
The trigger for the latest unrest was the Maldives signing a free trade agreement with China in December, which India loudly objected and is evidently trying to reverse by supporting a multiphase “deep state” coup in the country.
The first step was to intensify the ongoing information war against the Maldives by coordinating with the US-backed global Mainstream Media to smear the state as a “dictatorship”, after which the Supreme Court component kicked into action by suddenly changing the domestic political balance in the country and opening up the opportunities for a fast-moving “constitutional coup”.
It’s this second step that President Yameen tried to stop by ordering the military to surround parliament in order to stop any quasi-“legal” impeachment proceedings from happening, which could have created the pretext for exiled opposition leader Nasheed to claim leadership of the state and possibly even summon Indian military assistance to finalize the coup.
Having preempted that, however, there’s now a very dangerous chance that India will encourage its proxies to carry out their fallback plan of commencing a Hybrid War in the country through targeted provocations just like what happened in late 2015 with several failed assassination attempts against President Yameen and the subsequent risk of an externally supported “civil war” breaking out in the Maldives, which could potentially even see Daesh getting involved in carrying out its “trademarked” terrorist attacks.
Should that “dark scenario” not transpire and be narrowly averted just like it was nearly two and a half years ago, then the final step would be for India to lead the “international community” (the West) in trying to “isolate” the Maldives on the basis that it’s the world’s newest “pariah/rogue regime” and implementing sanctions against it and its leadership, after which New Delhi can then claim that Beijing is backing a regional “dictatorship” that “kills its own people” and is becoming a “Chinese colony/puppet”.
The outcome of this latest proxy conflict of the Chinese-Indian New Cold War will determine the Balance of Power in the Afro-Indian Ocean and whether it remains multipolar or shifts back to its previous unipolar status, as a Chinese-aligned Maldives led by President Yameen would secure these waters for the New Silk Road while an Indian-backed President Nasheed would disrupt it to New Delhi and Washington’s advantage.
The latest news is that President Yameen said that he’s considering early elections, which could temporarily defuse the crisis but need to be monitored for fraud and provocations carried out by former President Nasheed and his supporters, including any indirect “assistance” that they might receive from Daesh if it “conveniently” strikes the archipelago that has has the ignoble distinction of contributing the world’s highest per-capita number of terrorists to the group.
The situation is still fluid and anything can change in an instant, just like during the tense days of its late-2015 Hybrid War crisis, but regardless of whatever ultimately happens, it should be clear to all observers that events are being directed by India’s Research & Analysis Wing (RAW, which is allied with Mossad per the recent Indian-“Israeli” alliance that was formalized over the past 7 months) in order to advance the US’ goal of “containing China”
With China putting its foot down against the prospect of Indian meddling, the Modi government must now make a decision: Stand down in the face of a vastly more powerful and influential China or run the risk of open confrontation with China in the Indian Ocean.