Brazil’s Judicial Civil War Over The Fate of Former President Lula Risks Provoking a Wider Conflict

In April of this year, Brazil’s former left-populist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was jailed by the country’s Supreme Court on corruption charges that are widely believed both inside and out of Brazil to have been motivated by a desire to prevent him from seeking a third term in office. In this sense, it is not only fair but accurate to describe Lula as a political prisoner. Lula’s jailing follows on from the equally scandalous impeachment of his fellow Workers Party member former President Dilma Rousseff who was dramatically deprived of her elected office in 2016 and replaced by a centre-right administration that remains far more compliant with America’s decades long agenda of Brazilian subservience.

Yesterday, Lula who maintains his innocence while behind bars, was ordered free by Federal Judge Rogerio Favreto. Hours later, Faverto’s ruling to immediately set Lula free was overruled by Judge Sergio Moro who claimed that Favreto acted beyond the scope of his authority in ordering the former President’s freedom. Incidentally, it was Moro who in April sentenced Lula to nine years in prison, thus deepening allegations of a judicial conspiracy to pervert not only the course of true justice but to do so in a manner that suppresses the democratic trajectory of the wider public.



While Lula remains incredibly popular among Brazil’s poor, working class and those in favour of a multipolar geo-economic outlook, both he and Rousseff have increasingly been on the receiving end of a largely open conspiracy among Brazil’s deep state which remains keen to steer the country towards a US friendly consensus and away from the populism of Latin America’s so-called ‘pink tide’ which saw Brazil’s Workers Party become increasingly influential under the leadership of both Lula and his immediate successor Rousseff.

Just before Lula was initially sentenced by Judge Moro in April, geopolitical expert Andrew Korybko wrote the following on how the issues surrounding Lula’s fate could set of a chain of wider events throughout Brazil:

“One of two things can happen – either Lula is sent behind bars or he’s allowed to continue the appeal process and walk free for now, both outcomes of which stand to be exploited by the military for its own purposes.

General Eduardo Villas Boas, the commander of the Brazilian Army, warned that the military “repudiates impunity and respects the Constitution, social peace and democracy” in what was widely interpreted as a threat to potentially intervene if the Supreme Court declines to jail Lula. The armed forces are already deployed in the country’s former capital of Rio de Janeiro as part of a targeted operation against drug gangs, which in hindsight might be seen as symbolic muscle-flexing that signals its intent to play a more active role in domestic affairs given how the ongoing US-provoked political crisis has made the country dysfunctional and largely ungovernable.

Helping matters along is how the “deep state”-backed Washington Post launched a psy-op last month in an attempt to precondition the Brazilian public to accept a return to military rule, headlining one of their latest articles “In Brazil, nostalgia grows for the dictatorship — not the brutality, but the law and order”. That piece correlates with the narrative now being pushed by the Mainstream Media that former military officer and current presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro is a “Tropical Trump” whose chances of winning are within the margin of error if Lula was disqualified and he faced CIA-supported Marina Silva in a likely second-round runoff”.

While Lula’s supporters have complained of excessive and abusive treatment from the authorities during their frequent protests demanding his release, the open civil war between two federal judges could unleash a wider struggle that could see the military intervening to act as the final judge and jury not only of Lula’s fate but of the wider position of governance in Brazil. While incumbent President Michel Temer is largely a friend of the Brazilian deep state and its allies in the US military and intelligence community, his status as a placeholder seems ever more confirmed as he appears to be a domino who could prospectively fall to a military keen on putting one of their men in power who would dash the chances of Lula attaining uncontested judicial liberation and appealing to his supporters with the heroic status of a freed political prisoner.



Alternatively, if the military and their US allies think they can keep the lid on the current judicial civil war and the increase in pro-Lula activism that is now inevitable, it could be that if Lula is kept in prison until after the forthcoming Presidential election set for October of 2018, this would be enough to satisfy Lula’s deep state foes that the true purpose of his prison sentence – to keep him out of power, has been satisfied.

Thus, a great deal of what is to come between now and October depends on how much Lula’s supporters push for judicial transparency and fairness in the treatment of the former President turned political prisoner spooks the military and/or CIA into taking matters into their own hands. Alternatively, if the military believe they can retain control by effectively breaking up protests using predictable levels of violence, they may well opt to retain the option of a silent coup whereby an allegedly peaceful election is allowed to take place as scheduled but with the most popular leftist candidate unable to run in an election he would otherwise likely win – thus making the election far from genuine in a realistic sense.



Brazil is clearly on edge and this time, with the country’s absence in the final stages of the world World Cup, it means that judicial football is now the country’s most visible spectator sport and one with possibly dire consequences for anything resembling an ethical rule of law in Latin America’s largest nation.

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