The Philippines is no stranger to tragic natural disasters but by any standard, the recent earthquake in Indonesia’s Central Sulawesi which claimed the lives of over 2,000 people is a disaster on a mass scale. The Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has called for the strengthening of cooperation mechanisms throughout the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) to help the people of Indonesia to rebuild their infrastructure and provide relief to the injured and homeless at a time when such measures are very much needed.
According to Duterte,
“Indonesia has taken on the challenge of rebuilding and rehabilitating its communities. Indonesia stands resilient and unbowed in these difficult times. But Indonesia does not stand alone. Your brothers and sisters in ASEAN stand with you. In responding to disasters, Southeast Asia has declared: One ASEAN, One Response. And we have done so.
This should be our rallying call, not only in times of disasters but, indeed, as we strive to move our region forward to genuine growth, inclusive development and one resilient ASEAN community”.
While with the exception of Singapore, all of ASEAN’s members are classed as emerging markets, ASEAN has already collectively given $1 million US Dollars to Indonesia for quake relief while rescuers and doctors from multiple ASEAN members have arrived in Indonesia to assist the local authorities. Perhaps most importantly for the long term, ASEAN looks to follow Duterte’s lead and work on mechanisms for joint development initiatives to decease the overall economic impact of any future such disasters.
ASEAN remains one of the most dynamic economic and developmental zones in the world while warming Sino-ASEAN ties which themselves owe much to Duterte’s model for win-win solutions to South China Sea issues, looks to solidify ASEAN’s position as the key south eastern flank of the Belt and Road initiative.
China, Japan and Korea are generally considered the great economic giants of east Asia while Singapore is rightly included in this list when also considering south east Asian economies. However, ASEAN should be increasingly thought of as a major economic power as a collectively united force. While ASEAN works to build a single market on the basis of dialogue, compromise and democracy – something quite different from the European Union’s top-down and often coercive model, ASEAN’s ability to strike successful trade deals with other great economic powers proves that today, ASEAN is itself representative of the pooled strengths of its members which collectively represent a substantial contribution to the organisation as a whole.
As China is well on the road to becoming the world’s most powerful overall economy while in many areas China has already eclipsed the United States, the opinion of policy makers in Beijing as to which direction the global economic winds are blowing ought to be listened to carefully. China clearly sees multiple opportunities for win-win partnerships with ASEAN. When extrapolated further, as a free trading partner with China, Japan and South Korea, ASEAN is now a marketplace where the top economies in Asia and some of the most robust economies in the world engage in healthy competition with one another for the heart and soul of new projects base don the spirit of 21st century economic connectivity.
What’s more crucial is that while ASEAN began life in 1967 as an alliance of either non-aligned or pro-American south east Asian powers that largely excluded partnerships with China and its regional allies, today, all of ASEAN including traditional western partners are at the forefront of Sino-ASEAN win-win trading initiatives. One such example of this is the growing fruit trade between Thailand and China.
China’s most internationally recognised entrepreneur Jack Ma recently praised the fruit trade with Thailand while complimenting Thai durians as being internationally popular items on Ma’s Alibaba and AliExpress e-commerce giants. According to Ma,
“China is on its way to be the world’s largest consumer, driven by rising income and a growing middle class of 300 million. There is no better time than now for trade-oriented countries to seize this opportunity to export to China as the country continues to open its doors wider for global trade”.
China’s Xinhua further reports:
“Thanks to the on-line sales, the volume of Thailand’s durians exported to China rose 700 percent year-on-year in April, according to the Thai Commerce Ministry.
The surging overseas sales of Thailand’s durians came as leaders of the ASEAN countries have agreed to work toward an early conclusion this year of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, a free trade agreement (FTA) scheme of the 10 ASEAN member states and its FTA partners, namely China, Australia, India, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand”.
But beyond rapidly growing positive relations with China, ASEAN is also opening up its vast and diverse markets to the wider world. Other nations outside of the region, including Turkey whose prominent Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu is attending the Foreign Ministers ASEAN summit in Singapore throughout this week also look to expand trade with the south east Asian bloc. A free trading agreement between ASEAN and Ankara looks to be the medium term logical conclusion to the rapidly intensifying relations between Turkey and ASEAN. Likewise, as Pakistan’s new government looks to diversify its trading relations across global regions, I have suggested that an ASEAN-Pakistan free trading agreement could be mutually advantageous in both the near and long term.
Taken in totality, ASEAN has a bright future. The key for ASEAN leaders at this stage in time is to work more intensely than ever on continuing the development of an internal single market while singing free trading agreements with a combination of developed and moderately prosperous economies. Positive trading relations with others can help ASEAN not only to resolve its own conflicts but to also reach a Montreux Convention style agreement with China regarding the South China Sea.
In an age where the United States, a long time partner of many ASEAN states is retreating behind walls of economic protectionism, China has helped to foster a spirit of reinvigorated optimism regarding free trade as has been made clear by Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s recent visit to Malaysia and his visit today to neighbouring Singapore within the framework of the ASEAN summit. Speaking with Singaporean Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan, Wang stated
“With growing uncertain and unstable factors in the world, we should make concerted efforts to ensure East Asia’s peace and stability as well as maintain its momentum of marching forward”.
Balakrishnan later said,
“China has been ASEAN’s top trading partner for the past eight consecutive years. We upgraded the China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement in 2015 and we’re working to fully implement this upgrade protocol. We are also striving toward a joint target of $1 trillion in trade and $150 billion in investment by 2020”.
While ASEAN continues to develop strategies designed to harmonise an internal single market, simultaneous to this, ASEAN is also at the forefront of new initiatives which will see the bloc of nations become a key hub of global trade linking the Asia-Pacific region to the Indo-Mediterranean region. Above all, as a united trading bloc, ASEAN should now be considered an economic giant – a collective Asian tiger whose influence in the wider world is as important as that of China, Japan and Korea.
Because of this, it is both necessary and will be beneficial for ASEAN to cooperate more on development, particularly where building infrastructure less prone to wreckage during natural disasters is concerned. In this sense, under the right leadership, a combination of economic fortitude and fraternal compassion for fellow south east Asians can become a win-win model to tackle some of the biggest artificial and natural challenges facing the region.
President Duterte has shown a keen understanding of economic wisdom for the sake of compassion. This ought to become the guiding spirit of the ASEAN partnership.